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Fortress — losing money needs a systemic black swan
Loss axis only (yield/fees excluded). Curator-level Expected Loss, TVL-weighted across the live book. v1 (curatorwatch-risk-methodology-v1.md), schema 1.0.0 · model 4b840ab · updated 2026-07-06.
Daily closing AUM from CuratorWatch snapshots — hover for any day. History begins when tracking began, not at the curator’s inception.
| Deal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spark USDC Vault | USDC | morpho | A+ | $7.46M | 3.90% | 10% | — |
| Spark Blue Chip USDT Vault | USDT | morpho | A+ | $2.29M | 2.95% | 10% | — |
| Spark Blue Chip USDC Vault | USDC | morpho | A+ | $1.00M | 3.31% | 1% | — |
| Spark USDS Vault | USDS | morpho | — | $1.21K | 0.27% | 10% | — |
EL grade is the vault’s Expected-Loss rating from CuratorWatch’s loss-anchored model — the annual loss an LP should expect (probability of loss × severity), graded A+ (lowest expected loss) through E. Hover a grade for the modeled bps/yr and confidence interval; “—” means not yet rated. Deal links open the deposit flow for vaults this curator currently offers through Turtle, with TVL and APR pulled live from the opportunity.
Healthy liquidations repay lenders in full; bad debt is the loss signal. Full event detail lives in the Liquidations lens.
Total AUM fell 48.5% over 3 days ($20.97M → $10.79M). Sustained capital outflow.
TVL fell 14.5% in 24h ($2.68M → $2.29M). Monitor for continued outflows.
Total AUM grew 318.3% in 24h ($2.68M → $11.19M). Strong growth signal.
TVL fell 87.2% in 24h ($20.97M → $2.68M). Significant capital outflow detected.
Withdrawal of $653.2k (24.4% of vault TVL). Transactions this large happen <2% of the time.
Withdrawal of $610.9k (22.8% of vault TVL). Transactions this large happen <2% of the time.
Capital inflow of $845.0k (31.6% of vault TVL) into Spark Blue Chip USDT Vault. Strong growth signal.
Total AUM fell 53.5% in 24h ($45.05M → $20.97M). Major capital outflow.
TVL fell 53.5% in 24h ($45.05M → $20.97M). Significant capital outflow detected.
Total AUM fell 32.6% in 24h ($66.85M → $45.05M). Major capital outflow.
TVL fell 32.6% in 24h ($66.85M → $45.05M). Significant capital outflow detected.
Deposit of $2.96M (11.1% of vault TVL) into Spark Blue Chip USDT Vault.
Withdrawal of $4.49M (16.9% of vault TVL) from Spark Blue Chip USDT Vault.
Deposit of $4.61M (10.2% of vault TVL) into Spark Blue Chip USDT Vault.
Withdrawal of $4.66M (10.4% of vault TVL) from Spark Blue Chip USDT Vault.
Total AUM grew 26.7% in 24h ($52.77M → $66.85M). Strong growth signal.
TVL grew 26.7% in 24h ($52.77M → $66.85M). Strong capital inflow.
TVL fell 12.1% in 24h ($55.41M → $48.71M). Monitor for continued outflows.
Total AUM grew 43.0% in 24h ($33.67M → $48.14M). Strong growth signal.
TVL grew 77.3% in 24h ($28.81M → $51.08M). Strong capital inflow.
Deposit of $7.02M (13.8% of vault TVL) into Spark Blue Chip USDT Vault.
Deposit of $9.96M (19.5% of vault TVL) into Spark Blue Chip USDT Vault.
Total AUM grew 16.0% in 24h ($29.02M → $33.67M). Strong growth signal.
Deposit of $4.98M (10.3% of vault TVL) into Spark Blue Chip USDT Vault.
TVL fell 11.1% in 24h ($31.95M → $28.39M). Monitor for continued outflows.
Users with positions across multiple vaults