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Fortress — losing money needs a systemic black swan
Loss axis only (yield/fees excluded). Curator-level Expected Loss, TVL-weighted across the live book. v1 (curatorwatch-risk-methodology-v1.md), schema 1.0.0 · model 4b840ab · updated 2026-07-06.
Daily closing AUM from CuratorWatch snapshots — hover for any day. History begins when tracking began, not at the curator’s inception.
| Deal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Api3 dCOMP USDC | USDC | morpho | A+ | $11.82M | 11.82% | 5% | — |
| Api3 Core USDC | USDC | morpho | A+ | $4.78M | 3.45% | 5% | — |
| Kabu USDC | USDC | morpho | A+ | $516.07K | 4.19% | 5% | — |
| Purinta USDC | USDC | morpho | A+ | $500.45K | 1.92% | 5% | — |
EL grade is the vault’s Expected-Loss rating from CuratorWatch’s loss-anchored model — the annual loss an LP should expect (probability of loss × severity), graded A+ (lowest expected loss) through E. Hover a grade for the modeled bps/yr and confidence interval; “—” means not yet rated. Deal links open the deposit flow for vaults this curator currently offers through Turtle, with TVL and APR pulled live from the opportunity.
Healthy liquidations repay lenders in full; bad debt is the loss signal. Full event detail lives in the Liquidations lens.
TVL fell 10.1% in 24h ($12.49M → $11.23M). Monitor for continued outflows.
Total AUM fell 5.3% in 24h ($18.51M → $17.53M). Monitor for continued outflows.
TVL fell 50.0% in 24h ($1.00M → $500.4k). Significant capital outflow detected.
Total AUM fell 7.3% in 24h ($18.93M → $17.55M). Monitor for continued outflows.
TVL fell 16.5% in 24h ($5.86M → $4.89M). Monitor for continued outflows.
APY decreased 38.9% from 7-day average (0.18% → 0.11%). This is a >30% deviation, happening <5% of the time.
APY decreased 36.0% from 7-day average (0.20% → 0.13%). This is a >30% deviation, happening <5% of the time.
APY decreased 56.1% from 7-day average (0.32% → 0.14%). This is a >30% deviation, happening <5% of the time.
APY decreased 67.5% from 7-day average (0.42% → 0.14%). This is a >30% deviation, happening <5% of the time.
APY decreased 67.2% from 7-day average (0.50% → 0.16%). This is a >30% deviation, happening <5% of the time.
TVL fell 10.1% in 24h ($5.76M → $5.18M). Monitor for continued outflows.
APY decreased 69.6% from 7-day average (0.56% → 0.17%). This is a >30% deviation, happening <5% of the time.
APY decreased 35.5% from 7-day average (0.56% → 0.36%). This is a >30% deviation, happening <5% of the time.
APY moved 26.1% from 7-day average (0.51% → 0.38%). Monitor for continued volatility.
Vault went live with $1.00M in initial deposits.
APY increased 140.0% from 7-day average (0.38% → 0.92%). This is a >30% deviation, happening <5% of the time.
Vault went live with $1.00M in initial deposits.
Total AUM fell 5.1% in 24h ($16.19M → $15.36M). Monitor for continued outflows.
APY increased 178.7% from 7-day average (0.26% → 0.73%). This is a >30% deviation, happening <5% of the time.
TVL fell 49.6% in 24h ($1.02M → $515.2k). Significant capital outflow detected.
APY increased 241.8% from 7-day average (0.18% → 0.61%). This is a >30% deviation, happening <5% of the time.
APY increased 326.7% from 7-day average (0.10% → 0.44%). This is a >30% deviation, happening <5% of the time.
Total AUM fell 17.8% in 24h ($18.93M → $15.56M). Major capital outflow.
TVL fell 20.4% in 24h ($10.62M → $8.46M). Significant capital outflow detected.
TVL fell 49.8% in 24h ($2.04M → $1.02M). Significant capital outflow detected.
Users with positions across multiple vaults